2 posts tagged “jim cramer”
Unemployment was reported as 9.5% today. The number is actually 16.5%. I'm using the broadest measure of unemployment - U6
U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking
for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no
work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would
like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.
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CNBC stock pickers are saying we will continue to have deflation because of high unemployment. They ignore 3 issues:
- Commodity prices will rise as countries with the largest populations (China, India, Indonesia) will strive to consume at levels Americans have in the past
- Inflation is an increase in the money supply, and the FED has increased M1 by 16% since 2008
- There is no causation between high unemployment and deflation, look at Zimbabwe - 80% unemployment and 10,000% inflation!
Had you made the move into GAZ ($16.21) on April 29th and sold today ($18.59), you still made money.
It's easy for an egomaniac like Jim Cramer to move stocks, but he austricizes others for spotting arbitrage opportunities. Instead, he should have been telling you to buy, buy, buy natural gas ETFs like other smart investors were.
